Data predicts student outcomes. It shouldn’t decide them.

“We aren’t born to read — we’re born to speak.

Reading is a code that can be taught,” Dorrie said.

“I would like to see all Northampton students be

able to read by third grade. What happens when

they hit third grade and they’re really far behind,

it’s called the ‘Matthews Effect’: the poor stay poor

and the rich get richer.”

Roxanne Dorrie, former director of curriculum and instruction for NPS in the Daily Hampshire Gazette. 5/14/2023

Schools systems use predictive data to sort students early and actively funnel specific demographics into tracks that guarantee poor long term outcomes. Rigid academic and behavioral standards widen that funnel, directing even more students into these negative pathways. 

When my daughter started kindergarten, the IEP team wanted to take her off what was then the diploma track. If I agreed, the school district’s obligation would have shifted away from meaningful academics. I said no. When she reached the end of third grade, they told me that she was so significantly behind grade level standards, that they could not provide any additional academic teaching. 

Data predicts student outcomes. Because my daughter had multiple disabilities and an intellectual disability when she entered kindergarten, the data predicted she would not be able to graduate with a diploma. I didn’t dispute this, but I knew she could read some then, and had a knack for math and I wanted her to be taught with the tools available in her self contained classroom. 

Districts closed a number of self contained special education programs, especially at the elementary level, under the guise of equity and cost savings. This removed small, supportive, grade-level self-contained classrooms, as well as those classrooms providing more significant interventions and supports. 

Research shows better outcomes for students in general education, and over-identifying Black and Brown boys as requiring special education and placing them in isolated classrooms was and still is a real issue. But, dumping students into general education without increasing the supports created a new, invisible wall. 

Even though special education costs are rising, direct interventions, service and diverse placement options for individual students have shrunk. Often, the system concentrates its strongest academic resources on students who are already expected to succeed, while students with the greatest needs receive fewer opportunities for intensive instruction. 

Math and reading interventions dry up between grades 3 and 8. Without built in support during these crucial years, we see an explosion of high school students who are years behind grade level. 

When schools deny vulnerable students the instruction and supports they need, many are pushed toward school exclusion, unemployment and disproportionately, the juvenile and criminal legal systems. That is structural ableism and racism working in tandem. 

None of these problems are inevitable. They are the result of policy choices, which means we can make different choices and get different outcomes. 

We can:

  • Advocate for full funding of IDEA so districts aren’t forced to ration services. 
  • Strengthen Child Find and MTSS so struggling students receive intervention before they fall years behind. 
  • Invest in supported inclusion by funding special educators, paraprofessionals, reading and math specialists and related service providers. 
  • Preserve a continuum of placements including self contained classrooms when they are for the least restrictive environment for a student. Inclusion should mean expanding options, not eliminating them. 
  • Use objective disability identification practices, diversify the educator workforce and reduce reliance on subjective behavioral labels that disproportionately affect Black and Brown students. 
  • Replace exclusionary discipline with restorative practices and positive behavioral supports. 

Every student deserves the opportunity to learn, no matter what the data predicts.

Additional reading: 

Are students meeting reading and math benchmarks in Grades 3 and 8? From Education to Workforce